March 2024 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

To SMA clients and friends of Vailshire Capital Management: I am seeing many signs that the US business cycle may have already bottomed, and is plowing through pessimists on its way from bad to less bad The price performance of global assets strongly correlates with the direction of global M2 growth Vailshire portfolio changes reflect my increasing belief that we …

February 2024 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

To SMA clients and friends of Vailshire Capital Management: Also crabby (chopping sideways) are US net liquidity and global M2 monetary supply As these provide the figurative oxygen for US and global asset rallies, there is no reason to currently be overly bearish or overly bullish… based on my data sources I anticipate that price movements will make their largest …

January 2024 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

To SMA clients and friends of Vailshire Capital Management: US net liquidity hit a recent local high in mid-December and swiftly turned lower… staying true to its 20-month channel since April 2022 Global M2 is attempting to break out of its 32-month channel as we speak My outlook for 2024 remains generally bullish for risk assets and sound money Current …

December 2023 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

To SMA clients and friends of Vailshire Capital Management: “O recession, where art thou?” Inflation, though still higher than desired, continues to show signs of abating When bitcoin enters a bull market, there is (historically-speaking) no better asset class to own Current Market Conditions Where is the Recession? Hello from Colorado Springs! ——– I was honored to join Cedric Youngelman, …

November 2023 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

To SMA clients and friends of Vailshire Capital Management: From my vantage point, the US economy is still resilient–thanks, in part, to massive fiscal spending I continue to believe that the 2020s will generally be an unkind decade for stocks and bonds… the bread and butter of typical 60/40 Wall Street portfolios Bonds were slated (by me) to perform quite …

October 2023 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

To SMA clients and friends of Vailshire Capital Management: Liquidity and global M2 continued their sideways-to-down trajectory and many assets have struggled Instead of a tailwind, many investors are now facing multiple headwinds in the form of high interest rates, sticky high inflation, a strong dollar, and dissipating liquidity Our oil and gas stocks (OXY and TPL) continue to flourish …

September 2023 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

To SMA clients and friends of Vailshire Capital Management: Like oxygen, liquidity generally gets taken for granted… until it suddenly disappears Indeed, the Fed’s “higher for longer” mantra rages on and, as it does, the risk for wreaking market havoc rises ever faster Though the future is unknowable, those who are wisely prepared will likely experience the best outcomes Current …

August 2023 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

To SMA clients and friends of Vailshire Capital Management: The Fed raised 25 bps, Powell spoke… and the markets yawned Both worldwide liquidity and net liquidity in the US have been trending sideways-to-down since their peaks in 1Q 2023 During the month of July, we added two more capital efficient businesses to our “stagflation-busting” portfolios Current Market Conditions Crabbish: Neither …

July 2023 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

To SMA clients and friends of Vailshire Capital Management: Net liquidity contraction in June was less bad than many had anticipated An increasing number of institutional investors are starting to understand that proof of work Bitcoin and proof of stake “crypto” have nothing relevant to do with each other Vailshire’s 60% stock and 40% sound money portfolios hope to outperform …

June 2023 Update for Vailshire’s Separately Managed Account Clients

To SMA clients and friends of Vailshire Capital Management: All eyes are on the debt ceiling debacle Net liquidity may contract while the Treasury General Account is replenished Risk assets may underperform in the near-term, creating compelling long-term buying opportunities Current Market Conditions All Eyes on the Debt Ceiling Debacle Greetings from Colorado Springs! I hope this monthly investor update …